Collapse - what does that mean?!

So what do we mean when we use the term collapse and what causes a collapse?

A collapse defined can be defined as a 'sudden breakdown' but in terms of a societal collapse various definitions and causes have been put forth by numerous people:-


J. Diamond:
In his book 'Collapse: how societies choose to fail or survive' (a book that did in part inspire this blog) Jared Diamond gives 12 reasons as to why societies collapse:

- deforestation and habitat destruction
- soil problems (erosion, salinisation, fall in soil fertility)
- problems with water management
- over hunting
- over fishing
- the threat of introduced species on native species
- human population growth
- increased per capita impact
- anthropogenic climate change
- the accumulation of toxic materials in the environment
- energy shortages
- full human utilization of the Earth's photosynthetic capability


He then goes on to give a 5 point framework of factors that one should consider when investigating an environmental collapse. These include:

1. Environmental damage
2. Climate change
3. Hostile neighbours
4. Friendly trade partners
5. Society's response to its environmental problems


These factors and conditions give us a indication as to why a society may collapse and an idea on how to analyse the causes. These factors are the same problems that we face today and so by studying past collapses we appreciate the magnitude of these issues and learn how environmental concerns may be addressed to avoid any future collapse. 

J. Tainter:
However, another way to look at societal collapse is given in this video by Dr. Joseph Tainter and in this review by Tom Kando. They take a sociological view and suggest that a collapse occurs due to social evolution. This means that as a society becomes more complex it evolves and this evolution turns unsustainable and so society declines and can collapse. This is due to the fact a rising complex society leads to a a greater use of time, energy, a rise in annoyance and diminishing returns.

They use examples of technology, security and mining to explain how such activities end up taking more time and energy, have rising costs, produce less output compared to required inputs and are facing a decline in research and productivity. He also states that they eventually lead to bankruptcy and cause more problems than solutions. Moreover, they argue that society's priority with economic growth and technological fixes to problems result in issues only being dealt with in the short term.

Seven other issues are also mentioned as possible causes for future collapse:

1. Funding the retirement of the baby boomers
2. The rise of health care costs
3. Decaying infrastructure
4. Environmental crisis
5. The energy crisis
6. Continued high military costs
7. The increased cost of technological and scientific innovation

5 solutions(?) to the costs are also given:

1. Pay cost of solving the problems
2. Defer paying the cost
3. Subsidise to pay for cost
4. Reconnect costs and benefits
5. Don't solve the problem

Compared to Diamond's focus with environmental factors, Tainter and Kando look at collapse from a societal perspective and argue that while the environment maybe a contributing factor, social evolution and human factors are the main driving force for past and future collapses.


J. Greer:
J.M Greer takes a more economic view on how societies collapse and finds that collapses are a 'progressive disintegration'. He says that a society compromises of four components: resources, capital, waste and production. Resources and capital undergo a production process where new capital and waste is produced and so to maintain a society, capital from production needs to equal waste from production and input capital.

This model suggest that a society may expand as more capital is brought into production to produce more capital and given no limits to growth this cyclical behaviour can continue so society can maintain expansion. However, resources may be used beyond their replenishment rate and new capital does not make up for losses from waste. Continued production would deplete resources further and this can cause society to contract and be in a state of crisis as populations decline, physical capital become degraded and large scale social organisations are lost.

Nonetheless, the author argues that a society may avoid a collapse and return to a stable state by placing social measures against resource depletion beyond replenishment levels. Other methods include prolonging production by increasing resources through new technology or military conquest of new areas. This idea may help explain why some societies have failed whereas others have thrived.

Overall, Greer describes societal collapse as a result of production processes the unsustainable use of resources. This idea is narrower compared to the previous theories as it omits other variables, nonetheless it provides a good explanation as to how a society operates and how this may lead to failure as well as to why some societies succeed where others collapse.

Weiss and Bradley:
In this article societal collapse is thought to occur suddenly and various things may occur including: regional abandonment, a society may replace one subsistence base for another one and any social or political organisation becomes smaller and lower energy.

The article also states that while previous studies suggested that stresses on the local economy caused collapses new paleoclimate data matched well to changes in society. The data illustrated that a abrupt event changed local conditions so that they were no longer familiar to local populations. This change lasted for decades and was highly destructive to societies and this led to a collapse. The authors also mention that the collapse itself was a adaptive response to the stress caused by such drastic changes.

Weiss and Bradley's article has much stronger focus on how environmental changes lead to society to decline. They pay attention on how abrupt events can put enough stress on societies that they collapse as they cannot adapt fast enough.

K. Butzer:
Butzer states that collapse is rarely abrupt and it is often multi-causal. He sees change as a long term cyclic event where societies organise, expand, integrate and eventually systematically fail. The political simplification undermines the traditional structure of authority and favours militarization. Further stress can trigger disintegration of society and a decline in populations.

The author found that historical collapse can be attributed to 5 reasons:

1. Institutional failure that usually occurs at the early stake of a collapse (e.g. incompetence, loss of economic networks, corruption)

2. Civil war or invasions
3. Environmental degradation and climatic perturbations
4. Demographic retraction
5. Ideological shifts (e.g. due to foreign intrusion or ethnic change)

Butzer summaries by saying poor leadership, ideological changes and administrative issues are the main cause of collapses but other changes such as war or climatic changes act as triggering mechanisms. His research also found that environmental degradation was not a universal cause for collapses.

So whilst this article may prioritise factors other than environmental problems for collapses, it is vital to note that collapses are caused by multiple factors. Compared the previous explanations it also stresses the importance of administration in a society and has highlighted that management is essential for the running of a successful society.


So I know that this post was quite long (well done to those who have stuck it out) and maybe stating the obvious at times but these various definitions and explanations now provide us with a good understanding of the various ways a society may collapse. Also whilst my blog may focus on environmental factors being the main driver of societal breakdown, these various explanations serve as a good starting point for analysing the factors that caused a collapse in the upcoming casestudies and as something to bear in mind when thinking about the possibility of a collapse in the 21st century.

A not so optimistic outlook for life...
(source:sorrycomic blogspot)

Finally, most of my casestudies will be looking at the collapse of large civilizations in the past. So the final explanation is what constitutes as a civilization.  This website offers a nice summary and lists that a civilization usually includes:

- a large centralized population
- produces a surplus of food
- has a central government
- religious unity
- a complex division of labour
- collects money through taxes (or a concept of taxes)


So with that this blog post on explanations and definitions is finally over (hurrah!)but keep your eyes peeled for my next blog post where we travel to Ancient Australia...

(source: Guardian)