Climate change causing collapses currently?

So I came across this interesting comic a while back and saw the theory again on the BBC and it got me thinking on whether this is an example of how environmental conditions may lead to detrimental effects (even a possible collapse!) on society in the 21st century.

The articles states how the unrest in Syria could be linked back to environmental factors - in particular climate change.

Between 2006-2011 Syria suffered its worst drought, it was more intense and lasted longer than what could be explained by natural variability and so its is believed anthropogenic climate change is to blame. The effects of the drought were disastrous for the country with crop failures, 85% of livestock dying, pepper fields failing and more than 1 million farmers losing their land and livelihoods. With little government help farmers were forced to move into overcrowded cities and this exacerbated the problems of water supply, unemployment and poverty.

Eventually demonstrations against the governments and protests around the country lead to the uprising and civil unrest we've seen in the papers. around Million have been displaced, there have been numerous deaths and around 4 million people have left Syria.

This figure shows that the drought caused a significant loss of vegetation in Syria which led to massive reductions in agricultural productivity and displacement of the populations (source: USDA)

This severe drought and change to the landscape and livelihoods of people had caused a mass displacement of people and ended up leading to changes in society itself thus in this situation climate change can be seen as the 'unhinging stressor' for Syria but the impacts won't end there! Rising temperatures are expected to reduce agricultural capacity by 50% leading to food insecurity, droughts, economic losses and water shortages.
The director of Climate and Security has stated that the situation in Syria has illustrated the need to take environmental stress seriously and that future  of global security relies on our ability to manage climate stresses. This statement is important as changes to the environment can have major impact on lives, industry, governance and societies and harsh environmental conditions can even push societies to the brink (just look at the past collapses!).

But is this theory pushing it too far?  Could this situation even be considered as a collapse? Whilst I think this hypothesis is interesting and changes to the local environment do seem to have had a knock on effect on society in Syria, the underlying political situation seems to be the main reason for what we see going on. As far as the second question goes one misconception people may have of a collapse is that it means the population have moved away or died but Jared Diamond defines a collapse as ‘a decrease in population and/or in the political or economic complexity in a certain area over a period of time’. The ongoing migration out of Syria and the weakening of societal organisation and governance suggests that there has been a breakdown of how the nation’s society operates but I do not think this situation could be classified as a complete collapse like those seen in the past.

Nonetheless I started out this blog thinking that society would not collapse to such a scale in the past so it was interesting to see this example of how a collapse may occur in this century. And whilst the political situation seems to be the main driver of the issues facing Syria, environmental stresses –the drought and unreliable precipitation- seem to have exacerbated problems and are thus an important factor to take into consideration. Moreover, the devastation that can occur when a nation with political instability also faces climate change putting stress on resources such as food and water security illustrates how they can lead to conflicts and problems in the effective running of society. Thus we need to take the real threat that environmental stresses can cause seriously and as stated by Prince Charles start acting now in regards to climate change and future security.

On the whole this example does bring into the question the issue of societal collapse in this century and what it could mean to societies around the world through the implications of changes to the local climate and environmental processes. Comment below if you reckon something like climate change or changes to regional environments could lead to similar issues or even a collapse in the future.