Islands - Here today gone tomorrow!

Looking at the collapse that occurred in Rapa Nui it is quite obvious how fragile island systems are. This is true even today when around 10% of the global population (around 600 million people) live on islands and as a quarter of the world nations comprises of islands. In fact the area covered by island and their exclusive zones cover a sixth of the world's surface. 

Islands are important not just for the people who live on them and economic value but also for the biological value as many islands have important ecosystems and are home to a high number of endemic species. They may also be politically important as sites of contention between nations.

However islands are under threat! Anthropogenic warming and the predicted rise in sea level puts many cities below sea level and islands at risk. This clip from the BBC illustrates the threat to island state Vanuatu from climate change and this is true for many islands states such as Kiribati, the Maldives and the Republic of Palau (e.g. a rise of 1m will mean more than 85% of Male will be underwater). 

Other then the danger of going under the sea, climate change is expected to cause:
- saline intrusion
- erosion of the coastline
- more intense tropical storms (further eroding beaches)
- damage to coral reefs (from higher temperatures and sea levels)
- economic losses (no tourism, less farmland causing a negative multiplier effect)
- forced migration to higher ground or even mass relocation
- emigration and possible societal issues that arise from that
Among many other problems.

What will climate change do to developing island nations? (Source: Grida)

Whilst the need for action to help island nations is obvious in these articles David Cameron and Ban Ki-Moon urge island states to 'amplify their voices' and to really push for change! This statement actually made me flashback to our COP21 seminars where despite the pleas and protest of the 'other developing nations and island states' their voices were often drowned out by the more developed nations in a battle with each other about the climate fund and accountability. Now of course this was just a stimulation and (hopefully) in reality the islands states can voice their opinion but just much power do they have to influence climate deals?
Something that I found quite ironic in these articles was that the statements asked island nations to really take part in the COP21 deals as if they haven't before when island nations have been trying address their plight in climate discussions for years! I remember watching the 'Island President' back in 2011 (a good documentary - minus the slight propaganda) which followed the President of the Maldives as he aimed to ask for co-operation in regards to climate change and its impacts on islands to the Doha climate talks 4yrs ago. This goes to show that island states have been aware of their situation for years but have been unable to get nations to mitigate the effects that climate change will have on them.

Moreover, many of these states are developing nation and simply cannot afford the losses and damage costs that they will incur as a result of global greenhouse gas emissions which they hardly contribute to. Many of these nations are also part of the 'Small Islands Developing States' organisation with their own development goals that recognises island nations' limits but aims to help them overcome these obstacles and develop sustainably. In fact some developing islands have made significant strides in sustainable practices compared to developed nations. For example, Barbados is using solar water heating as an alternative energy source and Bonaire in the Caribbean is the first island to go 100% sustainable.
Nonetheless, to ensure the future of island societies it is imperative to address the challenges they face from climate, to offer support from the negative impacts of climate change, to offer financial support for less developed towns (which the climate fund could help with) and plans need to be considered and put in place should the worst happen and societies need to completely relocate.

 But will island nations really disappear? This article from the National Geographic suggests they may not. Studies show that reef islands are highly dynamic and can react to changes in sea level rapidly. This means that as sediments move so can they and this actually lead to a increase in size. The study shows that 80% of 600 reef islands grew or remained the same meaning sea-level rises may not devastate the islands. Moreover, a faster sea level increase actually makes the reef more dynamic and thus the reef islands may can survive in the future too. Other ways that islands may in fact be protected is from organisms that change dead corals into sediments and so whilst coral bleaching destroy the organisms, it may help increase the sediment budget in an island which can help against rising sea levels. However, in regions were permanent structures have been put in place (e.g. seawalls, roads) the dynamic reefs cannot move these features and so are still threatened by sea-level rise.

Overall, islands are in danger from climate change and this puts societies at risk of a collapse. However, the climate negotiations made in Paris can help reduce the risk island states face and with this international co-operation hopefully these islands states are safe from a demise like that which befell on Rapa Nui.

Islanders protesting against polluters deciding the fate of their home (Source: Popular Resistance)